Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 25/2115Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 Jul, 28 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (29 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 068
Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 26 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/15