Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 664 km/s at 26/0129Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/0735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0826Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 25/2225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13961 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 Jul, 28 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (29 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 069
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul 069/070/072
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  009/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  007/008-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/10