Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 25/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 944 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 074
Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 26 Jul 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 015/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 010/012-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/25
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/40/30
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