Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/1234Z from Region 2389 (S11E35). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at 25/2222Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/0258Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/2219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1109 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (29 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 097
Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 26 Jul 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 006/005-009/010-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/45
Minor Storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/55