Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 25/2349Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 26/1906Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/0845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/0848Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 154 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Jan), quiet levels on day two (28 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 102
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 008/008-006/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/40