Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 346 km/s at 25/2323Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/1524Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Jan, 28 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 075
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 003/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 006/005-006/005-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/25