Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 26/1322Z from Region 2733 (N05W34). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 25/2119Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/0836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/0952Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2053 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 077
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 006/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15