Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 26/1325Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/0420Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/0235Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (27 Jan, 29 Jan) and quiet levels on day two (28 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 070
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  008/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/20