Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 January 2017

By SpaceRef Editor
January 26, 2017
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 578 km/s at 26/2032Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 26/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 26/1527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1282 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Jan, 28 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 083
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 082/082/082
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  011/015-011/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/40/10

SpaceRef staff editor.