Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/1715Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Jan) and likely to be low on days two and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 406 km/s at 26/0014Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1718Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 26/1142Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2117 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 115
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 112/112/110
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 010/012-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/20/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/20