Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 January 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
January 26, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 January 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 26/1653Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 406 km/s at 26/0746Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 26/0802Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 26/0802Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (27 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Jan) and unsettled levels on day three (29 Jan).

 

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           26 Jan 147

Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 155/160/160

90 Day Mean        26 Jan 151

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  012/016

Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  012/015-008/010-011/012

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/20/30

Minor Storm           15/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/25/25

Major-severe storm    40/30/40

 

SpaceRef staff editor.