Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 January 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
26/1013Z from Region 1960 (S15W31). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Jan) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (28 Jan,
29 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
404 km/s at 26/1801Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Jan), quiet to active
levels on day two (28 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (29 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 20/35/35
Class X 01/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 138
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 140/155/160
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 007/008-011/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/05
Minor Storm 05/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 25/35/05