Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 25/2140Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 25/2117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1219 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 097
Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 097/098/102
90 Day Mean 26 Feb 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 008/010-010/012-011/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/40/40