Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 25/2140Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/1254Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6369 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Feb, 28 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 080
Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 080/080/078
90 Day Mean 26 Feb 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 006/005-006/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/25
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/40