Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 26/0427Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/1026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1141 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 070
Predicted 27 Feb-29 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 26 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10