Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 26/1401Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/0123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/0850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2177 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (01 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Feb 070
Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        26 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  010/014-006/008-005/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/15