Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/0951Z from Region 2506 (S07E22). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 26/1312Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 25/2215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 502 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 089
Predicted 27 Feb-29 Feb 090/085/085
90 Day Mean 26 Feb 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15