Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 461 km/s at 26/0740Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1147Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 191 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (28 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 111
Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 26 Feb 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 007/008-015/020-016/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
