Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 26/1438Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/0147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/2319Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 310 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 072
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 072/071/071
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 005/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10