Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 26/1807Z from Region 2249 (S12W47). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 542 km/s at 26/2100Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/2323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 304 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 137
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 007/008-008/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
