Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 357 km/s at 26/0818Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/2344Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/0830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 334 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (29 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 067
Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 26 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 012/014-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/05/15