- Status Report
- Mar 21, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 August 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug) and expected to be very low on day three (29 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 26/1838Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 26/1227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 26/0231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5893 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 071
Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 26 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 046/078
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 013/016-006/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/30/30