Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 25/2249Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/2257Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1334 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (29 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 082
Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 082/080/078
90 Day Mean 26 Aug 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 006/005-008/008-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/40
Minor Storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/25/30