Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
26/0241Z from Region 2146 (N07W58). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug,
29 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 297 km/s at
26/2053Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/1935Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0936Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 171 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (28 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (29
Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M 40/40/30
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 10/10/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 128
Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 26 Aug 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 017/020-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/20/10