Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Apr, 28 Apr, 29 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 25/2130Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2011Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0802Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 172 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Apr, 28 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Apr 085
Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 088/087/086
90 Day Mean 26 Apr 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 006/005-005/005-010/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/40