Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/1459Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (27 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
419 km/s at 26/0523Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/1031Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/2200Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2678 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Apr, 28 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (29 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Apr 121
Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 118/115/112
90 Day Mean 26 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/30