- Press Release
- Dec 2, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 October 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 676 km/s at 25/1945Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/0157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 25/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 079
Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 079/078/077
90 Day Mean 25 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 022/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 019/024-013/016-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 45/35/20