Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 25, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/2130Z from Region 2434 (S11W89). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 537 km/s at 25/0109Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 24/2318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/2118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Oct), quiet levels on day two (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 106
Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 25 Oct 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 009/010-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 25/10/25

SpaceRef staff editor.