Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to

25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at

24/2141Z from Region 2192 (S12W21), followed by an X1/3b at 25/1708 UTC.

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate

with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27

Oct, 28 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

466 km/s at 24/2210Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/0516Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1859Z. Electrons greater

than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1967 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (26 Oct, 28

Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (27 Oct). Protons have a

chance of crossing threshold on day one (26 Oct), have a chance of

crossing threshold on day two (27 Oct) and have a chance of crossing

threshold on day three (28 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct

Class M    85/85/85

Class X    45/45/45

Proton     35/40/45

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           25 Oct 219

Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct 220/220/220

90 Day Mean        25 Oct 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  009/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  009/011

Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  007/010-011/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/30/20

Minor Storm           05/10/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/20

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    25/40/25