Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
25/1503Z from Region 1882 (S08E59). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27
Oct, 28 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 357 km/s at
25/0412Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/0238Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/0109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 644 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Oct, 27 Oct)
and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Oct). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28
Oct).

III. Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 35/35/35
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 161
Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 165/165/160
90 Day Mean 25 Oct 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 007/008-007/008-011/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/25