Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 870 km/s at 25/0406Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 25/0251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 25/0405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9557 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (27 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (28 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 081
Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 082/083/083
90 Day Mean 25 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 017/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 023/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 015/015-010/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/15/05
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10