Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 November 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/0827Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 291 km/s at 24/2257Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 25/0336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 218 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 109
Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 25 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20