Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to

25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at

24/2221Z from Region 2217 (S19E53). There are currently 6 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with

a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov,

28 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,

as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 432 km/s at

25/0730Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2158Z. The maximum southward

component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0721Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV

at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 463 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Nov, 27 Nov)

and quiet levels on day three (28 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have

a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (26 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     10/05/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           25 Nov 169

Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov 162/155/145

90 Day Mean        25 Nov 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  005/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/05

Minor Storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/25/15

Major-severe storm    20/20/10