Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May, 28 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 353 km/s at 24/2201Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 131 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (26 May, 27 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 May).

III. Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 May 067
Predicted 26 May-28 May 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 25 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 006/005-006/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/25