Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 May 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
May 25, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May, 28 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 24/2211Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 197 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (26 May, 27 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 May).

III.  Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 076
Predicted   26 May-28 May 075/075/073
90 Day Mean        25 May 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  005/005-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/25

SpaceRef staff editor.