Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 25/0526Z from Region 2974 (S19E23). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 25/0000Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/1705Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 194 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (26 Mar, 28 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (27 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 112
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 112/112/110
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 010/012-013/018-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/25
Minor Storm 10/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/65/35