Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 25/0359Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/2140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/1221Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5101 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet levels on day two (27 Mar) and active levels on day three (28 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 079
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 080/080/075
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 016/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 007/008-006/005-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/35
Minor Storm 01/01/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/10/65