Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 25/0041Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/0820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/2124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4168 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (27 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (28 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Mar 068
Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        25 Mar 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  013/018-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/20/10