Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 24/2126Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/2211Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 175 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Mar) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 086
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 086/088/082
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 005/005-008/010-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/30/40