Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 25/0446Z from Region 2305 (S08E19). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 608 km/s at 25/1521Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/1202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/0929Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4999 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (27 Mar) and active to minor storm levels on day three (28 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 138
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 008/015/025
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 007/008-011/015-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
