Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0610Z from Region 2010 (S14W41). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar,
28 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
503 km/s at 25/2042Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/1938Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 25/1938Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Mar) and quiet levels on
days two and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 153
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 155/160/160
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 010/012-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/05/05
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 40/05/05