Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar,
27 Mar, 28 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 409 km/s at
25/1851Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/1817Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/2029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1611 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (27 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (28 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 093
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 005/005-007/010-015/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/40
Minor Storm 01/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 10/10/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/60