Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/1402Z from Region 3040 (S12E16). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (26 Jun, 27 Jun) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (28 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 24/2342Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/1104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 25/1821Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2035 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (27 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M 10/10/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 108
Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 105/105/095
90 Day Mean 25 Jun 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 017/018-008/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/30/35
Minor Storm 25/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 65/40/50