Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/1403Z from Region 2833 (N24W92). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 25/0821Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/2301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 24/2310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 540 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 083
Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 25 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10