Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 25/0255Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/1944Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 179 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (26 Jun, 28 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (27 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 069
Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 25 Jun 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 005/005-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/05
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/15
Major-severe storm 10/20/10