Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 365 km/s at 25/0913Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1718Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/1031Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 068
Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 25 Jun 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/10