Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 24/2228Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/2035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 25/2044Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2919 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Jun), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (27 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (28 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 073
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun 073/072/072
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  007/010-016/025-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor Storm           10/30/25
Major-severe storm    01/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    40/70/65