Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 25/0816Z from Region 2371 (N12W53). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (26 Jun, 27 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (28 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 710 km/s at 25/0830Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 25/0819Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 25/0625Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 25/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12360 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (27 Jun) and active to major storm levels on day three (28 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (26 Jun) and are expected to cross threshold on days two and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M 60/60/50
Class X 20/20/10
Proton 80/95/95
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 102
Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 25 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 0NA/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 022/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 013/015-025/045-037/060
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
