Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (26 Jun, 27 Jun)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (28 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 353 km/s at
25/1953Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/1548Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0610Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (27 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M 01/05/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 097
Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 25 Jun 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 006/005-007/008-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 10/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/10/10