Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 June 2013
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (26 Jun) and likely to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (27 Jun) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (28 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
590 km/s at 25/0812Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2130Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/2147Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
24/2300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun) and unsettled to
active levels with a chance for minor storm levels on days two and three
(27 Jun, 28 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M 20/15/10
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 109
Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 105/100/095
90 Day Mean 25 Jun 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 014/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 006/008-011/016-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/30
Minor Storm 01/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/50/40
